Israeli intelligence ‘dismissed’ detailed warning of Hamas raid

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A senior Israeli military intelligence officer dismissed a detailed warning predicting Hamas’s raid of October 7, calling it an “imaginary scenario”, said two people familiar with the discussions.

Sentries on Israel’s border with Gaza, many of them female soldiers who watch and analyse a constant feed of video and other data gathered near the electronic fence surrounding the enclave, sent a detailed report weeks before the attack to the highest-ranking intelligence officer in the southern command, both people said.

The report was sent using a secure communications system and contained specific warnings, including that Hamas was training to blow up border posts at several locations, enter Israeli territory and take over kibbutzim, the person with direct knowledge of the contents of the warning said.

The lower-ranking soldiers also warned that their analysis of several videos showed Hamas was rehearsing taking hostages and that they felt an attack was imminent, the person said. Read more from the memo.

• Truce update: Qatar’s foreign ministry has said the Israel-Hamas ceasefire, which was agreed in exchange for the release of hostages, will start at 7am local time today.

Here’s what else I’m watching today and at the weekend:

• Economic data: Germany releases final third-quarter gross domestic product figures, and the UK has the GfK consumer confidence survey today.

• Black Friday: US markets close early on the day after Thanksgiving.

• Booker Prize: The winner of the literary award for fiction will be announced at a ceremony in London on Sunday.

After expanding our ranking of Africa’s fastest-growing companies this year, the FT is seeking entries for the third annual list, to be published in early June 2024. Apply here to be considered.

Five more top stories

1. Investors are selling dollars at the fastest rate in a year as they raise their bets that the US Federal Reserve has finished its tightening campaign. Asset managers are on track to sell 1.6 per cent of their open dollar positions this month, according to State Street, which is custodian to $40tn of assets. Analysts warn the sales could be the start of a longer-term trend among investors to reduce exposure to US assets.

2. Finland is prepared to close all its border crossings with Russia and has warned that Moscow could try to smuggle soldiers or war criminals into the EU among the migrants it is deliberately sending across the frontier. Elina Valtonen, Finland’s foreign minister, said if Russia intensified its operation of allowing migrants from countries such as Yemen, Iraq and Syria to cross without documents, her country could restrict the filing of asylum applications.

3. The Bank of England must hold firm in its battle against inflation, its chief economist told the Financial Times. Huw Pill said the central bank had to resist the temptation to “declare victory and move on” from its battle to quash inflation, as the 4.6 per cent reading in October remained well above the bank’s 2 per cent target.

4. The former bosses of collapsed UK retail chain Wilko have been summoned to appear before MPs next week to explain why the 92-year-old company went bust. The Commons’ business and trade committee has written to Wilko’s former chief executive and chair, and representatives at accountant EY, to ask about the shortfall in Wilko’s pension fund and dividend payments it made “when it was heavily indebted”.

5. The BBC has failed to move its promised spending on music and radio out of London to fund projects in other parts of the UK, according to the public spending watchdog. The National Audit Office said the broadcaster’s six-year plan to decentralise operations, which kicked off in 2021, had made little change to its regional radio and music budget.

Have you stayed on top of the news this week? Take the FirstFT quiz and find out.

Deep dive

After Bernard Looney resigned as BP’s chief executive in September, the oil major presented his departure as the result of one man’s failure to disclose to the board past relationships with colleagues. But former employees and shareholders say Looney’s rise and fall is symptomatic of a culture that has long treated its rising stars differently to others, resulting in a tendency to turn a blind eye to mis-steps until they become too big to ignore.

What we’re also reading . . . 

• Mutual dependence: Microsoft’s tie-up with OpenAI has become one of the tech industry’s most successful partnerships, but it has not been without risk.

• Parallel elections: With a UK general election and US presidential race lined up for next year, cyber manipulation and contagious polarisation will test the health of democracy, writes Ben Ansell, professor of politics at Oxford.

• A changing Europe: Increasingly harsh measures and lurid rhetoric on migration make the continent look as if it is betraying its values, writes Timothy Garton Ash.

Chart of the day

The rise of foreign influencers in China — whom the country appears to be “cultivating” to speak up for the governing Communist party — has coincided over the past three years with Beijing’s move to expel some foreign journalists from the mainstream international media. Today, more than 120 foreign influencers with millions of followers defend the country online against critical overseas narratives. A substantial contingent hails from the UK, the US and other democratic nations.

Take a break from the news

After Elon Musk’s SpaceX lost another Starship rocket this week, the FT’s senior business writer Andrew Hill looks at two books on sensible risk-taking and embracing misfires.

Additional contributions from Euan Healy