IMF lifts China growth forecast as bankers urged to ‘ride the dragon’

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Good morning. The IMF has raised its forecasts for China’s economic growth, citing stronger policy support from Beijing.

The fund said China’s gross domestic product would grow 5.4 per cent in 2023, upgrading its previous forecast of 5 per cent. It came as China released weaker than expected export data, adding to recent mixed readings on retail spending, manufacturing and consumer prices.

The IMF’s first deputy managing director Gita Gopinath cautioned that “more is needed to secure a quicker recovery”. China’s economy has struggled to rebound after stringent Covid-19 lockdowns last year, a property sector meltdown and weakness in export industries.

Meanwhile, Chinese regulators used a gathering of top Wall Street heads in Hong Kong to push back against investor gloom over the country.

“It’s never too late to catch the China train — you can still ride the dragon to heaven,” said Wang Jianjun, vice-chair of the China Securities Regulatory Commission. Here’s why China’s top officials are optimistic.

• Opinion: Many more years of high economic growth are only possible if China restructures its economy to boost domestic consumption, writes Michael Pettis.

• More China news: China has made an “opening play” ahead of the UN climate summit by pledging to track and reduce harmful emissions from methane.

Here’s what else I’m keeping tabs on today:

• US secretary of state in Asia: Antony Blinken meets his G7 counterparts in Tokyo for a second day of talks before travelling to South Korea and India.

• Companies: Adidas, Airbus, Lyft and Walt Disney Company report results. To receive a weekly preview of the companies reporting, sign up to our Week Ahead newsletter.

• China rich list: Forbes publishes its annual rankings of the country’s wealthiest people.

Five more top stories

1. Chen Shaojie, the founder of Tencent-backed game-streaming site DouYu, was taken away by Chinese authorities several weeks ago, becoming the latest tech entrepreneur to run into trouble in the country. One person close to Chen said authorities were probing pornography and gambling, both of which are illegal in China, on DouYu’s platform.

2. Benjamin Netanyahu claimed yesterday that Israel’s month-long offensive against Hamas in Gaza was an “extraordinary success” as Israeli troops began operating inside Gaza City, the besieged strip’s capital. The comments came after Netanyahu on Monday said that Israel would maintain an indefinite grip over Gaza after its war with Hamas.

3. Portuguese prime minister António Costa has resigned after prosecutors issued arrest warrants and raided government buildings in a corruption investigation that reached his inner circle. Prosecutors said the potential wrongdoing related to several high-profile business ventures.

4. WeWork has filed for bankruptcy. The once high-flying desk-renting start-up co-founded by Adam Neumann and backed by Japan’s SoftBank is seeking to restructure more than $13bn in lease obligations through the Chapter 11 process. The group said it struck a deal with nearly all of its creditors to convert $3bn of existing loans and bonds into equity in the reorganised company.

5. Two of the world’s biggest private equity firms have reported starkly diverging fortunes as KKR boosted its fundraising expectations while Carlyle axed jobs as part of a cost-cutting drive. The results underscored how the two investment groups, which were roughly the same size a decade ago, have since moved apart.

News in-depth

Speaking to an enthusiastic scrum of reporters at this week’s China International Import Expo in Shanghai, US ambassador Nicholas Burns stressed Washington’s commitment to ties with Beijing. The crowded scene contrasted sharply with last year’s sparsely attended event, which took place during China’s zero-Covid policy. It also hinted at the prospect of increased Chinese collaboration with US and other foreign companies, despite geopolitical tensions and economic worries.

We’re also reading . . . 

• Disney’s India dilemma: Facing another year of expected streaming losses, chief executive Bob Iger is considering his options for Disney’s India business.

• Green transition: Indonesia’s president has called on the west to release a promised $20bn to finance his country’s green energy transition. “Indonesia has walked the talk,” Joko Widodo told the FT.

• AI race: Curbs on Chinese researchers at European and US universities risk undermining the ability to attract the talent that is critical to success, writes Anu Bradford.

Chart of the day

Economists say the falling cost of pork, with its heavy weighting in China’s official consumer price index, is likely to tip the country back into deflation when October data is released on Thursday.

Take a break from the news

Explore the “faraway heaven” at the heart of Polynesia with travel writer Oliver Smith. The little island of Raiatea is sacred to the region’s people and intimately associated with the art of navigation.

Additional contributions from Tee Zhuo and Gordon Smith