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Large swaths of the internet have embraced both sides of the showdown, with a great many moviegoers gladly planning their “Barbenheimer” double features. In a way, this is great for the industry in a summer when many big movies have underdelivered. “The Flash” is the shining example, but “Elemental” and “Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny” are also in that camp. So for both the studios and theaters, having two big films from two beloved directors drawing audiences in at the same time could be a good thing.
Unfortunately, it seems like the more expensive movie is actually on the wrong end of the equation here. Nolan recently spoke with Variety at the London premiere for “Oppenheimer” and said, “It’s a 180-page script and it’s a $180 million movie.” While that’s not an official budget, it sure sounds like it was a lot more expensive than the original $100 million estimates indicated. On the other side, Warner Bros. is said to have spent $100 million on “Barbie” before marketing. For what it’s worth, the marketing campaign has been wild and impressive — which means it was probably expensive too.
But if “Oppenheimer” really did cost $180 million, it would need extremely long legs and a ton of help from overseas audiences to break even. You would probably be looking at a $500 million (give or take) break-even point for Universal. Meanwhile, “Barbie” is going to be set up for success even if it comes in on the lower end of projections. If it continues to ramp up in the final days leading up to the release? The gap between the two could widen even further.
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