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“F9: The Fast Saga” was one of the rare success stories of the pandemic-era box office, releasing in summer 2021 and grossing $726 million worldwide by the end of its run. China did a lot of the heavy lifting overseas, delivering a massive $136 million opening and a $216.9 million total. So, when it comes to the global total for “Fast X,” China will be just as important to watch as the domestic numbers. It’s worth noting, however, that studios only receive around 25 percent of ticket sales in China, versus around 50 percent from domestic theaters.
Per Deadline, “Fast X” had grossed $68.7 million overseas through Friday, with an estimated $37 million of that coming from the Chinese box office. If it keeps pace with “F9” and “Hobbs & Shaw,” we can expect the tenth main franchise entry to gross somewhere between $700 million and $800 million worldwide by the end of its run, with around $170-180 million of that coming from the domestic box office. That would be enough to make most movies a hit, but there’s that $340 million production budget to consider. With that in mind, it’s looking unlikely that “Fast X” will break even by the time it leaves theaters.
Another recent mega-budget release, “Avatar: The Way of Water” (which reportedly cost around $350-400 million to produce), started out with a domestic opening weekend of $134 million and ended up swimming all the way to $2.3 billion worldwide. But “The Way of Water” had the James Cameron touch giving it long legs at the box office, whereas “Fast X” will probably be more of a sprint than a marathon.
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