When will we know midterm results?

At least 40 million Americans have already voted in the 2022 midterm elections, motivated by everything from the standard election-year issues (the economy, crime) to some larger ones (the fear that democracy itself hangs in the balance). But a sort of paradox exists: Despite them voting early in record numbers, it’s not likely that Americans will know the results of this election by Tuesday. In some cases, they may not know the winner the same week, or even this month.

Generally speaking, the midterms function as referendums on whichever party is in power. Democrats have to overcome that tendency to win control of the Senate outright, keep control of the House, or even prevail in state races down-ballot. It’s particularly high stakes in the Senate this year, with close races in Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and Pennsylvania.

Much ambiguity surrounds the results because elections are controlled by the state and local governments, creating a patchwork of idiosyncratic rules and restrictions.

Vote counting follows a labyrinth of rules that vary state to state

The National Conference of State Legislatures charts all 50 states’ early voting rules—46 states and D.C. offer early voting. Eight states currently mail out ballots by default (California, Colorado, Hawaii, Nevada, Oregon, Utah, Vermont, and Washington). In these states, voters don’t even need to request ballots; they’re just mailed one automatically.

The Associated Press has assembled helpful explainers on when the polls close in all 50 states, how long counting usually takes in each state, and what criteria must be satisfied for the news organization to declare a winner there.

However, the amount of time a state needs to count its ballots spans quite a range, from the same day (Kentucky has counted the majority of its votes within three hours of polls closing) to a whole week (Maryland took six days to count 90% of its votes in 2020).

Meanwhile, several battleground states, which tend to be on guard about crossing Ts and dotting Is, may not have results ready by Tuesday night. The AP says vote counting often takes “up to and sometimes longer than” a week in Arizona, while in Pennsylvania it “typically extends for several days.” Georgia is said to count its votes “fairly quickly,” but last election that still meant 95% by noon on the following day. In Nevada, ballots postmarked by November 8 are valid as long as they’re received by Saturday, November 12. Florida is one exception—last Election Day, it had counted 90% of its votes by 8 p.m.

The way people choose to vote early is also becoming more political

Donald Trump pointed to Pennsylvania‘s drawn-out vote-counting process to fuel his false claims of widespread voter fraud in 2020, and election officials worry that Election Day 2022 could elicit a similar response from him and his allies—not just in Pennsylvania this time, but also in other crucial swing states. For example, by law Michigan and Wisconsin allow so-called no-excuse absentee voting, meaning any voter can mail in their ballot without justifying why.

However, neither state gives election officials time to process them prior to Election Day. Federal law doesn’t let election officials (for obvious reasons) start counting ballots before Election Day. Many states allow officials to at least prepare ballots in advance, but Michigan and Wisconsin do not.

Given that certain politicians are still pushing the election fraud narrative, it’s perhaps no surprise that a partisan split has also emerged in how voters are opting to vote early: More Republican voters are choosing show up in person, while more Democrats are doing it by mail. This shift is a new variable that old voting models must account for, which has prompted election experts to warn against being overconfident in predictions based solely on 2022’s early-voter numbers.

Tight races could take days to decide, even weeks

Despite conspiracies that delays are a direct tool of election fraud, many state legislatures have baked lengthy processes to finalize and certify results directly into the cake.

For instance, when Pennsylvania‘s polls close at 8 p.m. on Tuesday, that will kick off a nearly three-week period during which candidates (from Senate hopeful Dr. Oz, to his opponent John Fetterman, to other would-be officeholders in the state) may object to votes they argue are invalid. If there’s no clear winner, this could string out the race.

Statewide, there are candidates who seem like they may avail themselves of this regardless how close their races are: State senator Doug Mastriano, among 2020’s loudest election deniers, has repeatedly insinuated he expects to see a plethora of fraud in 2022, too. He’s also Pennsylvania’s Republican candidate for governor, currently trails Democrat Josh Shapiro in the polls, and hasn’t openly said if he’ll accept this year’s results, should he lose.

Meanwhile, America may not know the winner of Georgia‘s pivotal Senate race between Senator Raphael Warnock and challenger Herschel Walker before December. Not because of absentee votes—Georgia passed a law in 2021 making those results due by 5 p.m. on the day after Election Day (alongside criminalizing giving food or water to voters in line). Rather, it’s because Georgia election law requires the winner to collect more than 50% of the vote.

Warnock and Walker are in essentially a dead heat, leaving both shy of 50%. (There’s a Libertarian Party candidate in the race.) If neither clears that threshold on Tuesday, the race will head to a December 6 runoff—a scenario that could keep which party controls the Senate up in the air until then.

What early voting can and can’t tell us

The pandemic spawned a mail-in voting trend, but there may be other reasons why it’s here to stay. University of Florida political scientist Michael McDonald has spent his career tracking early voting, and posts much of his data for the public to access on his site US Elections Project.

As of Monday, he says 42.4 million early votes have been cast. Of these, 19.4 million were cast in person, and 22.9 million were mailed in. A total of 57.9 million mail-in ballots were requested, which, if they were all returned, would equal over a third of the votes cast in the 2020 presidential election—which had the highest turnout of the 21st century. McDonald notes that in the 23 states where voters register by party, 9.3 million of the early votes cast have been by Democrats (42.7%), 7.4 million have been by Republicans (34%), and the rest add up to another 5.1 million votes (or 23.4%).

The eagerness to vote early is also occurring against the backdrop of two factors: rhetoric from politicians intended to sow doubt about U.S. election results being trustworthy, and also the country’s increased hyperpolarization. McDonald argues the toll can be seen on the current election. Higher turnout may be because the stakes seem greater, and the increase in early voting could be voters’ attempts to ensure their side is the one that runs the government.

Meanwhile, legal battles over absentee votes also threaten to delay Election Day results. One state at particular risk of this havoc is Pennsylvania, where the Republican National Committee has spent the past month fighting to stop anyone from counting mail-in ballots received on time, but without a date. (Enough ballots have reportedly already been set aside to swing a close race.) Last week, the Supreme Court of Pennsylvania ruled in the GOP’s favor, and on Friday the NAACP sued Pennsylvania’s election officials in a federal court outside the state to force it to count those ballots.

This joins a handful of other disputes over mail-in ballots filed by Republicans in Michigan and Wisconsin that, depending how they go in court, could tie up results, and even snake all the way up to the Supreme Court.