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Rishi Sunak has been warned by the leader of Northern Ireland’s Democratic Unionists that “very key issues” must be fixed before his party will back a deal on post-Brexit trading arrangements in the region.
Sir Jeffrey Donaldson, head of the DUP, met Tory Eurosceptic MPs at Westminster on Tuesday to discuss tactics as Sunak came closer to signing a deal with Brussels to reform the Northern Ireland protocol.
While Donaldson praised Sunak’s efforts to find a deal, he said: “There is still some way to go. There are still some very key issues that need to be resolved.”
Sunak still hopes to finalise a deal this week but time is running out if he is to close the agreement before events on Friday to mark the first anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Crucially, Sunak has the strong backing of Chris Heaton-Harris, Northern Ireland secretary and former chair of the Tory European Research Group, who carries significant weight with pro-Brexit MPs.
After meeting the ERG on Tuesday night, Donaldson said his party could not back a deal unless it changed the rules of trade in the region.
“The idea that all goods manufactured in Northern Ireland should align to the EU single market and its rules really inhibits our ability to trade within the UK, and that’s not acceptable,” he said.
Sunak hopes that the DUP will not immediately reject a deal and the party has said its officers and executive would consider the plan before deciding how to respond, including whether to go back into the Stormont assembly.
Mark Francois, the ERG chair, said his group would also want to study the legal text of an agreement. Its “star chamber” of lawyers, chaired by veteran Eurosceptic MP Sir Bill Cash, would scrutinise the text.
Sunak’s attempt to win support for a deal could rely heavily on the advocacy of Heaton-Harris, who has emerged as a key backer for the outline deal. “He’s telling everyone how good it is,” said one senior Tory. Heaton-Harris has been at the heart of negotiations.
Meanwhile, allies of Suella Braverman, the home secretary and another former ERG chair, say she has no intention of quitting the cabinet but is waiting to see details of a final deal.
Steve Baker, another Northern Ireland minister who once described himself as a “Brexit hard man”, is seen by Sunak’s allies as a minister who could quit, having been excluded from detailed talks.
Baker declined to comment but has told colleagues that he hoped the deal was one that he could support and that he would not be forced to resign. “It ought not to come to that,” he said.
The proposed deal seeks to cut friction on trade between Great Britain and Northern Ireland, while addressing the “democratic deficit” of the protocol, which was part of former prime minister Boris Johnson’s 2019 Brexit agreement.
A political declaration is expected to set out a role for the Stormont assembly in discussing new EU rules that apply to the region, which remains part of the single market for goods, and specify a limited role for the European Court of Justice in overseeing the deal.
Sammy Wilson, the DUP’s chief whip, told the Financial Times that his party’s discussion with Sunak in Belfast last week had been “one of the worst meetings we’ve ever had”. He did not attend the meetings.
Wilson said the DUP, which is boycotting the Stormont assembly in protest at the Northern Ireland protocol trade rules, said the party would not “compromise on the union”.
Referring to last week’s meeting, Wilson said: “It was very tetchy. It was an attitude of “be grateful for what we have done for you, get back in the assembly like good boys and girls. It was patronising and almost abusive.”
Sunak’s problem is that the DUP speaks with many voices. After the same meeting Donaldson, said that “on very important issues there has been real progress”.
The prime minister’s allies say it is key that the DUP does not immediately reject a deal. “The vital thing is that they don’t say No,” said one British official close to the talks.
Number 10 has not yet decided whether to put the text to a vote in the House of Commons, although senior MPs believe that parliament would have to have its say on the proposals.
One former Tory cabinet minister claimed that if there was a vote, scores of the party’s MPs might rebel against a deal if it failed to satisfy the DUP’s “seven tests” for judging reforms to the protocol, which include cutting border red tape and giving Northern Ireland a say over rules that apply in the region.
“The trouble is that it would be an accumulation of things,” the former minister said, arguing that supporters of Johnson might use the issue to try to destabilise Sunak.
Labour has said it would support Sunak’s deal in a vote, but the prime minister hopes an agreement will ultimately command DUP support and — by extension — the backing of most of his MPs.
Maroš Šefčovič, the vice-president of the European Commission leading the talks, held a video call with James Cleverly, UK foreign secretary, and Heaton-Harris on Tuesday afternoon.
“Discussions on the protocol on Ireland/Northern Ireland continue at high intensity,” he said in on Twitter afterwards. “We remain in close touch, focused on finding joint solutions. Set to speak soon.”
While Šefčovič said he could see “the finishing line”, some EU diplomats fear that the longer Sunak waits before striking a deal, the more entrenched the opposition to an agreement will become.
“The longer he waits, the more difficult it becomes,” said one, pointing out that Brussels had hoped for an agreement on Wednesday. Now that timetable looks likely to slip to the weekend and beyond.
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