states could flip from blue to red in 2022

Whatever your political affiliation, chances are good that you live in a state where voters will be deciding their next governor on Tuesday. Thirty-six states and three U.S. territories—including the top five states by population—have gubernatorial races happening this week. Among those, 31 incumbent governors are running to keep their jobs, according to the National Governors Association.

Most will. Sitting governors are typically difficult to beat, and recent polls suggest that bold-faced names, such as Gavin Newsom of California, Mike DeWine of Ohio, and Ron DeSantis of Florida, are probably not going anywhere. At the same time, some key races are tighter than expected, notably in New York State, where Republican Lee Zeldin has been gaining on Democrat Kathy Hochul, who took over as governor last year after Andrew Cuomo’s spectacular fall from political grace. In other words, it’s conceivable that New York could flip from blue to red this election season, which would mark the first Republican governor for the state since George Pataki left office 20 years ago.

Although the likelihood of that happening is still slim, governor races in a number of other states are far tougher to call. According to an analysis from Politico, five states—Arizona, Kansas, Nevada, Oregon, and Wisconsin—were seen as toss-ups in the final days leading up to the election. Democratic governors are currently running the show in all of those states, except Arizona, where Republican Doug Ducey is prohibited from running again due to term limits. Meanwhile, the current race between Democrat Katie Hobbs and Republican Kari Lake is separated by only one point, according to a recent Marist Poll. That’s actually good news for Hobbs, who was trailing Lake by as much as three points in a similar poll in September.

If you’re looking to track the latest forecasts among the 36 gubernatorial races in the final hours of the 2022 election, 270toWin has a handy interactive map and spreadsheet that lets you do just that.

Alternatively, you can check out the latest roundup from the Cook Political Report, which currently shows five toss-ups among the 36 races. Overall, Cook says eight of those races will solidly go to Democrats and 12 will solidly go to Republicans.