America needs 14 million new electric machines by 2026

To meet global climate goals, millions of machines that run on fossil fuels need to be replaced by ones that run on electricity. That means swapping out fossil-fuel-burning stoves, furnaces, and cars for their electric counterparts. Just how many of these machines do we really need? The nonprofit Rewiring America now has an answer: Americans must purchase 14 million more electric machines over the next three years.

That may sound overwhelming, but Cora Wyent, research director at Rewiring America, which is focused on “electrifying everything,” says it’s actually tangible. “There are 120 million households in the U.S., so that’s less than 10% of households taking just one of these actions over the next three years,” she says. That 14 million number is the total across different types of appliances, including heat pumps, heat pump water heaters, induction stoves, electric vehicles, and rooftop solar systems.

The figure comes from the nonprofit’s latest report, Pace of Progress, that aims to set short-term, tangible goals for electrification, which is crucial to reaching the U.S.’s 2050 climate goals. “One number that we’ve used in the past is 1 billion machines, which is the number of machines in total that we need to replace across our economy, and that sounds really overwhelming,” Wyent says.

The report breaks that down into more near-term targets. Cook County, Illinois, for example (the second-most-populous county in the U.S.), needs to install 12,000 heat pumps over the next year.

The report doesn’t take into consideration electrification projects already underway, or the effect of incentives like the Inflation Reduction Act or local government rebate programs. It’s not modeling the pace we’re currently on, but rather the pace we need to be on.

Researchers modeled current linear sales trends—the business-as-usual scenario—and then modeled S-curve adoption rates. Most new technologies typically follow this pattern, which shows a slow uptake by early adopters, which then accelerates as the market takes off, manufacturing increases, and prices drop.

The 14 million total is how many electric machines need to be sold in the next three years (above the current business-as-usual scenario) to hit that 2050 emissions target. The report also breaks down the numbers by type of electric machine: 2.38 million sales of heat pumps; 200,000 sales of heat pump water heaters; 1,760,000 sales of induction stoves; 6.7 million sales of electric vehicles; and 2.78 million rooftop solar installations—all over baseline in the next three years. (Researchers left out one major electric technology, electric clothes dryers, because most people have them by now, according to Wyent.)

There are already strategies in motion to get sales of electric appliances on the desired trajectory—like the Inflation Reduction Act and other incentive programs. In 2022, heat pump sales exceeded gas furnace sales in the U.S. (and the report’s 2025 goal for heat pump sales is just three times over the business-as-usual scenario).

Still, these next three years are crucial for electric adoption. “Anytime someone starts installing a gas furnace, they’re locking in emissions for years down the line,” Wyent says. “We need to really quickly be moving to a point where whenever someone replaces an appliance, it’s with an electric alternative.”

Rewiring America also focuses on the ways Americans can make these swaps, with guides and tools that walk people through each step. There are already a handful of startups that can help consumers make the switch to all-electric. Wyent hopes that the nonprofit’s report helps make the goals tangible. “We’re not miles away from reaching net-zero,” she says. “It’s just about making progress year over year.”