B/R MLB Roundtable: Revisiting Preseason Picks, Predicting Next Rule Change and More | News, Scores, Highlights, Stats, and Rumors
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B/R MLB Roundtable: Revisiting Preseason Picks, Predicting Next Rule Change and More
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AP Photo/Alex Brandon
As part of what we hope will be a new regular staple here at Bleacher Report, MLB writers Joel Reuter and Zachary Rymer sat down to discuss all the hottest topics from across the baseball world in the first edition of our 2023 MLB roundtable.
Joel Reuter: We are now roughly a month and a half into the 2023 season and we still haven’t rolled out our first MLB roundtable article of the year. That seems like an absolute crime, if for no other reason than my own personal enjoyment of sitting down and chatting baseball with my fellow B/R MLB scribe, Zachary Rymer. How’s life? Enjoying all the changes this new season has brought?
Zachary Rymer: There’s nobody I’d rather talk baseball with than you, Joel. Well, except for maybe Earl Weaver if anyone has the power to arrange that. But in any case, this season has been a lot…in a good way! The new rules have made the game intoxicating in a way that it wasn’t in the 2010s and early 2020s. What are you making of things?
JR: Totally fair, my father-in-law is an Orioles fan and gave me the book Weaver on Strategy for Christmas and it’s a great read. I’ve enjoyed the new-look, on-field product so far. Honestly, I think I’ve surprised myself with how OK I am with the pitch clock being a part of the game. I’m a purist at heart, but it’s been a well-executed idea.
Anyway, we’ve got a lot to talk about today…
Which Preseason Prediction Did You Nail?
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Pete AlonsoElsa/Getty Images
JR: Let’s start by patting ourselves on the back a little by highlighting a preseason prediction that we knocked out of the park. I’ll let you go first. Impress me with your prognosticating skills.
ZR: “I don’t mean to brag,” he lied, “but I’m feeling pretty good about picking Pete Alonso to win the National League home run title.”
Probably a lay-up as predictions go, but there he is all the same with an NL-high 17 dingers. I figured he would be good for at least 40, but he looks like a man possessed to top 50 for the second time in his career. Maybe it’s an early free-agent salary drive. Maybe he just likes hitting home runs. Either way, he’s making me look good and I appreciate that.
JR: How fun would it be if Alonso hit 63 a year after Aaron Judge was the talk of baseball with his 62 home runs?
He has dealt with some injury issues in the past, but I’m still feeling good about my Zac Gallen for NL Cy Young pick. He had a 44.1-innings scoreless streak late last season, and he rattled off another 28-inning streak in April. When things are right for him, they are very right. He also leads the majors with a 1.78 FIP, which means, if anything, his underlying numbers point toward some potential positive regression. That’s wild considering he’s 6-1 with a 2.35 ERA and an NL-best 0.86 WHIP through nine starts.
Given the opportunity to wipe the slate clean and try again, Gallen might be the only one of my major award picks I would double down on.
ZR: Gallen led the majors in fWAR after the All-Star break last year, when he also had a long scoreless streak. Never has the phrase “picked up where he left off” been more appropriate.
Which Preseason Prediction Did You Whiff On?
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Brady SingerDavid Berding/Getty Images
ZR: Enough with the back-patting. What predictions did we get less than right?
JR: Ooooh buddy, where to begin…
In my Opening Day power rankings article, I thought it would be fun to pick a breakout hitter and breakout pitcher from both leagues as a complement to my award predictions. Let’s check in on those picks, shall we?
Breakout AL Hitter: Andrew Vaughn. He hasn’t been bad by any means with a 101 OPS+ and a team-high 31 RBI, but the step forward I was expecting offensively has not come yet. This was the best of my picks…
Breakout NL Hitter: Oneil Cruz. He played nine games before suffering a fractured ankle that will keep him sidelined well into the second half. Sorry, Oneil.
Breakout AL Pitcher: Brady Singer. There are 71 pitchers who have enough innings pitched to qualify for the ERA title. He ranks 70th with a 7.09 ERA through nine starts.
Breakout NL Pitcher: Edward Cabrera. The stuff is still electric, evidenced by his 55 strikeouts and 12.3 K/9. However, it has also been wildly erratic as he leads the NL with 30 walks and has a 5.13 ERA and 1.59 WHIP as a result.
Have I incriminated myself enough?
ZR: Oof. But speaking honestly? I liked those guys coming into the year, too. Especially Cruz, and he was even off to a good start before he suffered that nasty injury.
Still, I’ve got that beat. As part of a piece reacting to various betting odds, I pushed back on the notion that the A’s would be the worst team in baseball in 2023. I even tried to put some logic behind it. But truth be told, I have a soft spot for the A’s from having spent 20 years of my life in the East Bay, and that’s really where that stance was coming from.
A pro tip for would-be pros: Never do this, lest you open yourself up to punishment from the baseball gods like I did. I might as well be bound to a rock with an eagle eating my liver every day. Sheesh.
JR: Oh my. I will indeed concede this point to you. And what an almost impossibly perfect transition this is into our next topic of conversation.
Are the 2023 Oakland Athletics the Worst Team You’ve Ever Seen?
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Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images
JR: What is the worst baseball team you can remember, and were they worse than the 2023 Oakland Athletics?
Since you were so willing to defend this abomination of an Oakland squad during the preseason, I’ll let you start and take a crack at finding a worse team during our respective lifetimes.
ZR: As I was just a wee lad at the time, I have only hazy recollections of the Cleveland Spiders’ 134-loss season in 1899.
The team I do remember well is the 2003 Detroit Tigers, who lost 119 games. That team’s Baseball Reference page is a “Let’s Remember Some Guys” gold mine, but I’ll always think of that year as being Jeremy Bonderman’s trial by fire. He’s still the last 20-or-younger pitcher to lose 19 games in a season.
But if this A’s team isn’t worse, it’s a sadder story. At least the 2003 Tigers had a new stadium that drew over a million fans that year. This is the third year in a row that the A’s aren’t even drawing 10,000 fans per game, and who can blame them? The fans, that is. The team is lousy and the Coliseum isn’t in much better shape than the Colosseum at this point.
JR: The Mike Maroth 20-loss season, who could forget? I had a hunch that was going to be your answer, so I was prepared to go in a different direction. I present for your consideration, the 2018 Baltimore Orioles.
This team was just two years removed from an 89-win season and an appearance in the AL Wild Card Game, and it’s not like they gutted the roster with some grand fire sale. They went 8-27 in their first 35 games, were a record 41 games below .500 at the All-Star break and finished 47-115. Chris Davis was an impossibly bad minus-3.3 WAR player.
Much like this year’s Oakland team with breakout star Brent Rooker, the 2018 Orioles had one offensive standout in a sea of mediocrity, as a 25-year-old Manny Machado was the starting shortstop in the All-Star Game. He was then traded to the Los Angeles Dodgers ahead of the deadline for a package of prospects that has not panned out, throwing one more handful of salt into a truly terrible year for Orioles fans.
MLB Network @MLBNetwork
<a href=”https://twitter.com/hashtag/Orioles?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw”>#Orioles</a> GM Dan Duquette discusses the decision to trade Manny Machado on <a href=”https://twitter.com/hashtag/HighHeat?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw”>#HighHeat</a>. <a href=”https://t.co/5oPRZRjgna”>pic.twitter.com/5oPRZRjgna</a>
ZR: Geez, until now I hadn’t realized that I had completely memory-holed the 2018 Orioles. And it should indeed be part of their legacy that they didn’t get much out of the Machado trade. Yusniel Diaz was supposed to be the big piece, and he’s now back with the Dodgers after flaming out of the Orioles organization.
Will the Mets and Yankees Make the Playoffs?
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Dylan Buell/Getty Images
ZR: What’s say we stay on the Eastern Seaboard and talk Yankees and Mets. Neither got off to an ideal start, but do you think one is still going to make the playoffs? Or, gasp, both?
JR: Do you ever pitch a question for a roundtable discussion, then realize all you’ve done is set yourself up to rile up the most outspoken fanbase in the sport?
The Yankees are going to miss the playoffs. There are just too many holes on the roster, and the AL East is too good. Even if they get fully healthy, which is an all-caps IF, I still don’t think they’re a better team than the Rays, Blue Jays or Orioles. And with the Texas Rangers looking like a legit contender alongside the Houston Astros in the AL West, it quickly becomes a numbers game. Would an October spent watching from home finally be the last straw for Brian Cashman?
As for the Mets, who would have guessed pinning your World Series hopes on 40-year-old Justin Verlander and 38-year-old Max Scherzer might carry some risk? I still think they’re good enough to make the playoffs, but the Braves are going to run away with the NL East. Outside of the Dodgers and Braves, I wouldn’t bet the house on anyone from the NL being a lock to make the playoffs, so there’s still a clear runway for the Mets to figure things out and earn a spot.
Anthony DiComo @AnthonyDiComo
Cool fact on today’s doubleheader:<br><br>Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander have 449 combined career wins — the most by two starters on one side of a doubleheader since Texas’ Nolan Ryan and Charlie Hough (484) in 1990.<br><br>The Mets record is Warren Spahn and Frank Larry (487) in 1965.
ZR: I’m not as down on the Yankees as you are right now. It was two weeks ago when Aaron Judge was on the IL and basically everything was going wrong. But that was then. This is now. Judge is back and beginning to look like his 2022 self, and I like that Anthony Volpe is figuring things out offensively. They can also only get healthier as the year goes along, and the guys they stand to gain aren’t exactly lightweights.
Also, I don’t have as much faith in the Orioles, whose starting pitching is uninspiring, or the Blue Jays, who only seem to be able to land punches when they fight below their weight class.
As for the Mets, go ahead and bury ’em. This team was only ever going to work if the starting rotation held together, and it hasn’t. And it’s not just the injuries that concern me. Max Scherzer looks nothing like Max Scherzer, and Justin Verlander has looked hittable since he came off the IL. Maybe the trade deadline can rescue this team but, well, how? Who are they going to go get who could save them? Certainly not Shohei Ohtani, I can tell you that much. And by “tell,” I of course mean blatantly speculate.
JR: This is going to be a fun topic to revisit on a semi-regular basis. Maybe we just pencil in a Mets/Yankees conversation for each of these roundtables we do and revisit our previous takes.
Which Sub-.500 Team is Still a World Series Contender?
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Steph Chambers/Getty Images
JR: So you’re selling the Mets and I’m sort of buying still. Are there any other sub-.500 teams we should hold off on throwing that final shovel full of dirt onto who still have a legit shot at winning it all this year? I have a couple in mind, but I’ll let you start us off.
ZR: I’ll still stan for the Mariners. They’re only a game under .500, so they’re not that destitute even as is. They also have a pitching staff that ranks No. 1 in the league in fWAR, in part thanks to a bullpen that’s going to get Andrés Muñoz and Penn Murfee back eventually. What they need is more offense, for which it bodes well that Julio Rodríguez and Teoscar Hernández are simply better than this. And it could be that J-Rod is right on schedule, given that it took about 40 games for him to get rolling in his sensational rookie year.
JR: **Shakes fist** Yes, the Mariners were indeed the team I had at the top of my list. Love that pitching staff, and I’m a firm believer in the whole pitching wins championships mindset.
I had another, though, and that’s the San Diego Padres.
Assuming Manny Machado doesn’t miss significant time beyond his current injured-list stint, I still think this team is simply too talented not to improve. Joe Musgrove is going to figure it out, Blake Snell is going to remember he’s pitching in a contract year, and at least a few guys not named Bogaerts, Soto or Tatis Jr. are going to snap out of it offensively.
Once that happens, this is the type of momentum-hungry team that could rip off a 20-5 stretch of games. The Dodgers are still the team to beat in the NL West, but I’m far from ready to count the Padres out of it.
ZR: If you hadn’t picked the Padres, I would have hopped in a Delorean, traveled back to five minutes ago and picked them.
The Juan Soto freakout was fun while it lasted. As of Friday, he had a 1.134 OPS over the last 18 games. And Machado will probably be fine. I don’t watch every Padres game, granted, but from what I’ve seen this year he just seems slightly off. Provided his hand doesn’t become a nagging thing, I still have him penciled in for a big season.
Let’s also keep in mind that these Padres don’t necessarily have to have a great regular season in order to go far in the playoffs. They only won 89 games last year yet still beat a 101-win Mets team and a 111-win Dodgers team once they were in October.
Speed Round: Buy or Sell Breakout Players
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Joe RyanJohn McCoy/Getty Images
ZR: Speed round time. Give me a one-sentence buy/sell on these four breakout players: Brent Rooker, Nolan Gorman, Joe Ryan and Bryce Elder.
JR: Oooh picking up the pace, I like it! Pitch clock must be winding down on this roundtable.
Rooker: Buy. He’s 90th percentile in exit velocity, 93rd percentile in hard-hit rate and 97th percentile in barrel rate.
Gorman: Sell. The power is legit, but a high whiff rate and a strikeout rate hovering around 25 percent makes me think there’s regression brewing.
Ryan: Buy. A 2.16 ERA backed by a 2.54 FIP, a 57-to-7 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 50 innings, a .190 opponents’ batting average, what’s not to like?
Elder: Sell. He can be a fine back-end starter, but it’s tough to trust a guy who doesn’t miss bats (7.6 K/9) to maintain a sub-2.00 ERA, and his 3.56 FIP backs up my thinking.
That was fun! Now your turn: James Outman, Jonah Heim, Justin Steele and Bryce Miller.
ZR: Let’s just say that we would be be in trouble if our superiors ever decide we need to write each sentence in 15 seconds or less.
Outman: Sell. I was cool on him earlier in the year, and he’s still running a 33.3 strikeout percentage with a big gap between his SLG and xSLG.
Heim: Buy. He was good last year and he’s made further strides this season, specifically with his exit velo, hard-hit rate and barrel rate. Plus, he’s in the 91st percentile for framing.
Steele: Buy. He’s only striking out 7.6 batters per nine innings, but his home run suppression (2 in 55.1 innings) is backed up by stellar contact quality metrics including exit velo in the 95th percentile.
Miller: Sell. But it’s a soft sell. I don’t like that he’s getting his strikeouts despite a 15th percentile whiff rate, but his stuff and especially his command are major league quality.
MLB’s Next Big Rule Change?
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AP Photo/Mark J. Terrill
JR: Let’s wrap this up by coming full circle. We talked a bit about the pitch clock at the beginning, what do you think should be the next big rule change that MLB institutes?
ZR: I could stump for the ABS, or “Automated Ball/Strike System.” But I’ve seen The Terminator. Today’s robot umps could be tomorrow’s living-tissue-over-metal-endoskeleton killing machines. I don’t want history to brand me as being complicit in their rise.
So, I’ll go simple: Outlaw the intentional walk already.
Doing away with the need for four wide ones was a start, but the ol’ IBB is still just terrible for the viewing experience. It is not baseball. It is opting out of playing baseball.
Want to pitch around a guy? Fine. But at least that way there’s still the potential for a misfire down the middle or in the dirt that any runners on base would be able to take advantage of. Either way, the situation would have the potential for more outcomes than a talented hitter simply handing his gear off to the batboy and trotting down to first.
JR: You won’t find me stumping for the ABS anytime soon either, still just doesn’t feel like baseball to me, though I think it’s inevitable at this point.
This might not fit the spirit of what we’re talking about since it’s not an on-field rule change, but I think it’s long overdue that a salary floor be instituted. At a time when the New York Mets are spending nearly $350 million and there are eight teams spending north of $200 million, it’s incomprehensible that there are four teams spending less than $80 million to field a team. The Mets are paying Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer more than the Pittsburgh Pirates, Tampa Bay Rays, Baltimore Orioles and Oakland Athletics are paying their entire rosters.
I could care less what it means for the deep-pocketed owners’ bottom lines. There’s zero downside to a salary floor from a fan standpoint. It makes for a more competitive product, more money is going into the player’s pockets rather than into the pockets of the already rich owners, and free agency would be wild. Even a $100 million floor would have a dramatic effect on the MLB landscape.
ZR: But Joel, if MLB forces billionaire owners to spend more money on their payrolls, they run the risk of becoming less wealthy billionaires!
In all seriousness, I’d be fine with a salary floor or maybe a reverse luxury tax (go below a certain payroll figure, pay a fine) or limitations on how many consecutive years teams can operate with low payrolls. Want to save money while you rebuild? Fine. But you only have three years before we send Luca Brasi over to make a point.
Anyway, this has been fun. I think we’ve solved baseball.
JR: Ooh, I like the idea of a reverse luxury tax, that’s not something I’ve considered. Good stuff!
Classic Zach and Joel, fixing baseball one roundtable at a time!
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