Russia is retreating, so why is the U.S. nudging Ukraine to compromise? : NPR

Russia says its withdrawing troops from the key southern Ukrainian city of Kherson, which would mark another big setback for Russian leader Vladimir Putin.

This is the latest military success for Ukraine since it launched a major offensive more than two months ago, giving it the clear momentum on the battlefield.

Yet President Biden and his top advisers are now nudging Ukraine to show a greater willingness to consider peace talks with Russia.

“There has to be a mutual recognition that military victory is probably, in the true sense of the word, may be not achievable through military means, and therefore you need to turn to other means,” Army Gen. Mark Milley, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs, said Wednesday.

“When there’s an opportunity to negotiate, when peace can be achieved, seize it,” Milley told The Economic Club of New York.

The general is the most recent of several administration officials to make remarks along these lines in recent days. U.S. officials say they are not forcing Ukraine into talks, or dictating any sort of potential outcome.

At a news conference on Wednesday, President Biden reiterated his position that the United States is “not going to tell [Ukraine] what they have to do.”

The president also said that Russia’s withdrawal from Kherson is evidence of “some real problems with the Russian military.”

U.S. officials also acknowledge that neither Ukraine nor Russia appear ready to hold serious negotiations. But the Americans would like Ukraine to ease its adamant opposition to talks with Russia, believing negotiations will be required at some point.

Russia and Ukraine held a few brief rounds of talks shortly after Russia in February. But the discussions went nowhere, quickly broke down, and there’s been no sign they’re about to restart.

In his nightly televised address, Zelenskyy this week repeated the conditions before negotiations could take place. He said all Russian forces must leave Ukraine, Russia must pay damages caused by war, it must punish war criminals, and there must be guarantees that Russia will never invade again.

“We have proposed negotiations numerous times, to which we always received crazy Russian responses, terrorist attacks, shellings or blackmail,” the Ukrainian president said.

When Russia annexed four Ukrainian regions in September, Zelenskyy said he would never negotiate with Putin.

“We will negotiate with the next Russian president,” he said.

Zelenskky made no mention of Putin in his most recent remarks, and some observers interpreted this as a slight change in Ukraine’s position, even if it wasn’t stated explicitly.

Meanwhile, Russia’s Foreign Ministry spokeswoman, Maria Zakharova, said that Russia is “ready for negotiations, taking into consideration the realities formed at a current moment.”

However, she did not say what compromises Russia might be willing to make.

Ukrainians said this follows a familiar pattern, with Russia offering to negotiate or take a pause when it is doing poorly and looking for a chance to regroup militarily.

The significance of Kherson

Kherson was one of Russia’s few successes in the war. Russia forces faced virtually no resistance as it captured the city on the Dnipro River. This was seen as part of a broader Russian effort to take control of Ukraine’s entire Black Sea coast, which is used to export the country’s agricultural products, the foundation of its economy.

Now the Russians say they are leaving Kherson without a fight, though Ukrainian forces have been advancing toward the city for the past two months.

The Russian media reported Thursday that the withdrawal was going as planned. This follows the formal announcement by Russian military leaders leaders Wednesday on state television, where they said described it as a difficult decision, but a necessary one to protect the Russian forces.

Analysts say no such move could be made without Putin’s approval, though the Russian leader has yet to comment publicly.

This would mark the third major retreat by the Russian forces this year.

A large Russian force approached the capital Kyiv, the country’s largest city, in the first days of the war in February, but pulled back a month later at the end of March.

The Russians also neared the second largest city, Kharkiv, in the north, before pulling back in May.

Ukraine’s cautious reaction

Despite Russia’s latest announcement, the Ukrainians are treating it with skepticism, saying they have not seen evidence of a full-scale withdrawal.

Ukraine said Thursday that its troops have taken over a dozen villages outside Kherson in the past day. Russian troops and roadblocks are gone. But the Ukrainians say they are still not sure what Russia is doing inside the city.

Russia had an estimated 20,000 to 30,000 troops in the Kherson region, a number that could not slip away unnoticed, especially since Ukraine has damaged or destroyed the bridges over the Dnipro River, which would be used to leave.

The mystery surrounding the city’s status is likely to clear itself up fairly soon. Some Ukrainian civilians are still in the city. Ukrainian troops have kept Kherson under close watch as they have advanced toward it this fall. And the U.S. military and intelligence agencies are also watching from afar.

Meanwhile, Zelenskyy has urged Ukrainians to be patient.

“Our emotions must be restrained,” the president said in his television address Wednesday evening. “The enemy does not bring us gifts, it does not make gestures of goodwill.”