Can The Sci-Fi Thriller I.S.S. Defy The Odds At The Box Office?

“I.S.S.” sees tensions flare in the near future aboard the International Space Station as a worldwide conflict breaks out on Earth. The U.S. and Russian astronauts are both ordered to take control of the station by any means necessary for their respective countries. The trailer has painted it as a slasher movie of sorts in space, which is a good angle. The cast includes Ariana DeBose (“West Side Story”), John Gallagher Jr. (“10 Cloverfield Lane”), Chris Messina (“Air”), Maria Mashkova (“For All Mankind”), Pilou Asbæk (“Samaritan”), and Costa Ronin (“Homeland”).

Bleecker Street is not a studio that has delivered big results at the box office, historically speaking. Their biggest movie to date is “Logan Lucky” ($49 million worldwide/$29 million budget). More commonly, they release movies like 2022’s “Breaking” ($2.8 million box office) that make their money on VOD/streaming after the fact. They likely picked up this movie knowing that it fit their typical business model.

My best guess is that, despite some effects-heavy shots, it wasn’t terribly expensive to make. If the budget is around $20 million or less, I think the film can still be a modest winner with some decent word of mouth. For what it’s worth, it currently holds a very solid 93% approval rating on Rotten Tomatoes. There’s also very little by way of direct competition coming for several weeks. The movie’s biggest competition will be the NFL playoffs, which will be a big draw for many would-be moviegoers.

Meanwhile, original sci-fi remains a tough sell in the pandemic era. “The Creator” ($104 million worldwide/$80 million budget), “65” ($60 million worldwide/$45 million budget), and “Hypnotic” ($16 million worldwide/$65 million budget) all disappointed in theaters last year. But “M3GAN,” another sci-fi movie with a horror angle, made $181 million worldwide. The odds of that happening are all but impossible but the right audience could find the movie along the way, if all goes well.

“I.S.S.” is set to hit theaters on January 19, 2024.